Analysis of the Cosmos 1408 Breakup

There will be some potential collision risk to most satellites in LEO from the fragmentation of Cosmos 1408 over the next few years to decades.

Cosmos 1408 — Before the ASAT Test

Orbit path of Cosmos 1408 satellite prior to breakup
LeoLabs high level information on Cosmos 1408

The Day of the ASAT Test

LeoLabs tracking data on Cosmos 1408 for 30 days prior to the breakup event
LeoLabs data collected on new Cosmos 1408 debris taken from Costa Rica Space Radar

Initial Data Assessment

Gabbard diagram of LeoLabs data on 253 new Cosmos 1408 debris objects

New Spatial Density of Space Debris

LeoLabs assessment of the new debris density from Cosmos 1408 breakup

Factors Affecting Lifetime in Orbit

Some of the new Cosmos 1408 debris fragments may be as large or larger than many cubesats operating in LEO.

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